After Brexit and Trump, what next?

After Brexit and Trump, what next?

In the post-9/11, post-GFC world, and amidst the current populist and anti- establishment climate, it has become a necessity for investors to take a more pragmatic approach to global investing, according to Iain Stewart-Linnhe, a distinguished speaker at the Monaco Wealth Forum on March 15.

With cross-border enforcement now a clear and present danger , and scrutiny levels on the rise, greater awareness of investment opportunities is now paramount as these can backfire via exposure to unwelcome sources and uses of funding for illicit activities.
Geo-political risk is leading to geo- financial risk for investors; populism is on the rise leading to inevitable protectionism over security concerns. There is now an inevitable that the post-GFC regulatory drive needs to be rationalised, and this is in line with our longstanding principle of a smarter response to regulation and the sense that we need smart regulation, not more regulation.

Greater calls for transparency have meant that for HNWs, there is a need for a recognition to take on a more active engagement with asset diversification and allocation, and a need for more flexibility in terms of venues for investment. With a need to take care over perceived opportunities in high risk environments not backfiring over globally-applicable enforcement or unwanted links to designated, sanctioned activities.
Despite global attempts to unify an effort towards greater transparency – for some driven by fiscal concerns, but principally as a matter of security – there is a level of fragmentation occurring which means that IFC diversification is becoming an increasingly important factor for genuine investors looking to protect assets.
Recent populist outcomes and general dismay at the performance of national and regional governance structures are making it increasingly likely that selecting the right venues is of paramount strategic importance to highly mobile investors.

There is an increasing need for HNWs to hold specific governmental policy to account by adopting more dynamic and pragmatic investment strategies. If unreasonable conditions exist for investment, prevailing trends suggest a perfect opportunity for major investors to look for value elsewhere, due to the increasing fragmentation of fiscal and investment policy on a global basis.

There is no doubt that this has been provoked by the “T rump” or “Brexit” effect, and investors should look to take advantage, whilst acknowledging the very real potential risks in certain activities that involve illicit behaviour which is becoming widely sanctioned. Prudent asset and venue diversification with one eye on transparency is now the order of the day.

The ability to predict major events – or at least hedge for specific outcomes – has never been greater. We do not believe that major macro events have a specific impact on individual investments, more that the general trends are shaping the way that we view markets. As reflected in the post- Trump election and post-Brexit surges in US and UK equity markets.

At Stewart Linnhe, we predicted the UK General Election, Brexit, T rump and Renzi referendum outcomes, and Iain Stewart-Linnhe spoke about the real possibility of a Brexit outcome in strategic terms in a keynote macro- economic speech as early as May 2013.

From a policy perspective, his paper in September 2015 which included early warnings about the relative ineffectiveness of the JCPOA in non- nuclear , commercial sanctions terms was widely applauded by senior experts in the US.

There is an increasing need for HNWs to hold specific governmental policy to account by adopting more dynamic and pragmatic investment strategies. If unreasonable conditions exist for investment, prevailing trends suggest a perfect opportunity for major investors to look for value elsewhere, due to the increasing fragmentation of fiscal and investment policy on a global basis.

There is no doubt that this has been provoked by the “T rump” or “Brexit” effect, and investors should look to take advantage, whilst acknowledging the very real potential risks in certain activities that involve illicit behaviour which is becoming widely sanctioned. Prudent asset and venue diversification with one eye on transparency is now the order of the day.

Iain Stewart-Linnhe will be among the highly-qualified speakers at the Monaco Wealth Forum on March 15. He will address the topic of ‘The Future of Offshore v Onshore.
Iain Stewart-Linnhe is a leading global strategic expert, senior US-qualified banker, academic and former Executive Director at a major European investment bank. He is the founder of Stewart Linnhe – smarter response to regulation, a strategic advisory for senior policy-makers, business leaders, investment banks, Big Four, Magic Circle, family offices, sovereign funds, IFCs and HNWI, primarily in Europe, the GCC and Asia. He personally acts as trusted advisor to select high level clients.

His capital markets, investment and legal expertise and global awareness of major policy implications give him a unique insight into adopting the right strategic response to ever-increasing geo- political change and his understanding of cross jurisdictional issues is unparalleled. He has published widely in journals and regular exclusive briefings on the impact of global policy change on investments and speaks regularly on major conferences in Europe and the Middle East. He is involved with several round table and advisory boards in the industry and regarded as a leading advocate for a greater understanding of the global impact of major enforcement and fiscal policy in strategic investment terms.

He has a prominent reputation for forward thinking – highlights include a major keynote speech in 2013 when he warned of the real likelihood of Brexit, and calling the 2016 Brexit outcome correctly. He also advised clients correctly of the outcomes of the UK 2015 election, and 2016 US presidential election and Renzi referendum. His coverage in September 2015 and subsequent advisory on the real-time implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal in global commercial terms was widely acclaimed amongst Washington think tank experts and well-received by senior policy-makers, business leaders, and HNWI around the world. Most recently he has been involved in advising on Brexit, the Italian debt crisis and leading IFCs on a more coherent approach to attracting FDI where heightened transparency is commonplace adopting his distinctive, commercially-driven approach.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

-->